Survey of Insurers Predicts Another Double-Digit Health Care Cost Climb in 2009

Health care costs are expected to rise more than 10% into2009, according to a survey of insurers by Aon Consulting Worldwide. But that increase is the smallest Aon's seen in 6 years. Experts say it shows efforts to tame costs, such as employee wellness or disease management programs, may be paying off. An Aon Consulting Senior VP said there's a variety of tactics employers have been employing over the last 3 to 6 years that had an impact on the market. Aon Consulting surveyed about 70 health insurers around the U.S., including companies such as Aetna Inc. and Cigna Corp. It found actuaries expect costs to rise an average of 10.6% during 12-month rating periods starting this year between April and September. That represents a slight drop from last year's forecast of 10.9% and a bigger fall from 2002, when health care costs were expected to rise by over 16%. But the percentage likely won't be what average employees face for a premium hike next year. It doesn't reflect insurance plan designs or changes an employer might make to benefits plans. He said pretty much every employer has to do something or is doing something in an effort to bring that number down.. He said actual cost increases have wound up being three to four percentage points lower than preliminary estimates in the past couple of years. Still, he said Aon Consulting's survey gives employers a benchmark to use as they consider premium renewals. Many employers have started researching their benefit options for 2009. Consultants say it's too early for predictions on next year's health care plan costs. But one employee of Equity Risk Partners Inc. said midsize employers could see a cost increase of roughly 9% to 12% that they pare down to 6% to 9%. Costs are still rising to keep up with growing patient demand for services, the needs of an aging population and prescription drug and technology costs, according to Aon Consulting, an Aon Corp subsidiary. Overuse and misuse of services and an "out-of-control medical liability system" also contribute to increases, said an employee of America's Health Insurance Plans, a trade association representing nearly 1,300 insurers. It is encouraging the growth in health care costs is going down, but there is still more work to be done, he said. He said health insurers have offered disease management programs and encouraged the use of cheaper generic drugs to help contain costs. Employer wellness programs also have played a role, Aon Consulting’s Senior VP said. He noted doctors, hospitals and employers all worked to curb costs. He said when costs go up as great as this, there's a lot of market pressure brought to bear on all the parts of the market to bring those costs down, and he thinks that's what's been happening over the last six years or so. Aon Consulting has forecast a steady decline in cost increases since 2002. But Sharon said this decline has grown smaller the past few years, a sign the reductions may be bottoming out.