Spending Fell 2.7% in '08. The Real Issue: '09. Walmart Spending Up 16%; Retail Surpasses Auto as Top Ad Category

Top 100 U.S. advertisers cut ad spending 2.7% last year, only the 4th spending drop since Ad Age began ranking the Leading National Advs in 1956. Last year's slide compared with declines of 0.4% in 1970, 3.9% in 1991 & 1.3% in '01, all recession years. But dig deeper & there's a surprise in the numbers: Amid all the economic upheavals and uncertainty, 50 of the 100 LNA marketers raised total ad spending in 2008 (including measured media plus unmeasured disciplines), according to an Ad Age DataCenter analysis. Among big gainers was Walmart Stores, which boosted estimated total U.S. ad spending 15.9% to $1.66B. The giant discount retailer turned recession into opp; measured media spending on its flagship Walmart chain soared 66.4%, making Walmart the nation's fifth-most-advertised brand. Procter & Gamble remained nation's largest advertiser, though its estimated total U.S. ad spending fell 6.6% to $4.8B. P&G ranked #1 or # 2 in 52 of the 54 years Ad Age has published the LNA report. The 2.7% spending decline calculated by Ad Age for the 100 LNA reflects a drop of 3.8% in measured media, tempered by a 1.2% decline in unmeasured disciplines.
Unmeasured spending safer
The drop proves unmeasured fields aren't immune to cutbacks, but it's also true unmeasured disciplines have fared better than measured media as marketers continue to shift spending. Media measured by WPP's TNS Media Intelligence -- like TV & print -- accounted for 56.5% of top marketers' U.S. ad spending in 2008, down from 57.2% in 2007, according to Ad Age's 100 LNA report. The rest of spending came from unmeasured fields, including direct marketing and promotion. The overall picture for this year is shaping up to be more grim: Measured media spending for the top 100 advertisers slid 8.1% in the 1st-Q, according to TNS. Moreover, Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia forecasts an 8.7% decline in U.S. media spending in '09 & 1.7% drop next year, with a tepid recovery -- 1.1% growth -- in 2011. It predicts spending drops of 5.1% in 2009 & 1.4% in '10 & then growth of 2.4% in '11 when it combines media spending & unmeasured disciplines. 2008's ad-spending drop may seem relatively mild. But full-year figures smooth out the stunning declines that came after financial markets imploded last fall.
Following GDP down
The nation officially has been in recession since Dec.