Predictions & Advice About The 2014 Job Market
Per analysis by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), preliminary numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that, on average, through October, 2013, 186,300 jobs were created each month of this year. That’s up from 172,700 during the January-October time frame in 2012 and an increase from an average of 169,900 during that same period in 2011.
SHRM’s own Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) also indicate that 2013 has been a solid year for job creation. In 11 of 12 months of 2013 service-sector hiring was reported to have surpassed the rate of hiring from the previous year, while the manufacturing sector saw year-over-year hiring gains in eight of the past 12 months. For more information, directly from SHRM, I encourage you to visit http://www.shrm.org/Research/MonthlyEmploymentIndices/Pages/default.aspx.
Now let’s move on to 2014 and see what sort of projections at this point can be made from other sources reviewed recently by SHRM.
The National Association of Business Economics’ (NABE) October 2013 Industry Survey report said a net of 27% of surveyed U.S. organizations will add jobs in the next six months (37% said payrolls will expand; 10% said payrolls will shrink, either through attrition or significant layoffs).
According to the NABE, the service sector is forecast to have the highest rate of job growth, with a net of 40% expecting to add jobs and have no layoffs. The goods-producing sector is expected to have the lowest job-creation rate, at a net of 5% (35% adding jobs, 30% eliminating them, through attrition or layoffs).
With the average U.S. unemployment rate for this year being 7.5%, NABE projects that the annual average rate for 2014 will drop to 7%; an improvement from 2012’s 8.1%.
2014 may be better for college graduates entering the workforce. Employers will hire approximately 85 more new college graduates for U.S. operations in 2013-14 than they did in 2012-13, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers’ NACE 2014 Job Outlook Survey, conducted Aug. 5 through Sept. 13, 2013, among its college-recruiting professional members. The results from the 208 returned surveys revealed that companies overall will hire 12% more new college graduates for U.S. and international locations combined.
Robert Half International (RHI) predicts recruitment of mobile applications and software developers will remain competitive and therefore base compensation for information-technology professionals in the United States is expected to increase 5.6% in 2014.
The next highest average starting salaries in the U.S. are forecast to rise approximately 3% in 2014 for newly hired accounting and finance professionals as well as for creative and marketing professionals.
According to a survey by Right Management, a subsidiary of staffing management firm Manpower, many workers will be looking for new employment opportunities in the 2014. Of the 871 U.S. and Canadian employees polled online from Oct. 16 to Nov. 15, 2013, 83% admitted they will look for a job in 2014. In addition, 12% were unsure but admitted to networking and updating their resume; only 5% plan to stay in their current position.
Therefore, at Shaker Recruitment Advertising & Communications, we advise many of our clients that the best strategy in 2014 may be to act proactively, instead of reactively, by acting now to retain top talent within their workforce through enhanced internal employee communication and therefore discourage employees from considering opportunities at direct or indirect competitors.